I think I've reached a reasonable compromise.

I'll believe in global warming during the spring and summer months, and deny it's existence during the fall and winter.

If you lived around here last winter you'd think it in Winter even.

Maybe global warming cherry picks it's victims.

Have you ever thought of that?

If the southern hemisphere had continents surrounding Antarctica like the NH landmasses do the Arctic, we would be buried in ice and snow now beyond anything experienced in the NH even during the 70s "ice age" scare.

And Black Metal would have been invented by Antipodeans.

But we don't. The SH is 80% water so the massive chill this year is easily buried by the oceans with the occasional polar cold fronts reaching South Africa, Oz, NZ, and southern S. America. But cold anomalies have still been happening not seen in decades.

Historically, climate wise the NH follows the SH. I expect the NH to experience another brutal winter again. And Odin willing, Britton should be happier this winter.

Around these parts, we have MORE snowfall in warmer winters most of the time. Look into lake and oceanic effect snowfall. We get more snow when the lakes don't freeze over and warm air picks up moisture and deposits it as snow on land. Also, I believe the Alaskan snowfalls of recent year have been higher because ice and snow melting causing tons of additional humidity. Something like that.

NOAA's Top 10 list of hottest years on record. Pretty much the last decade is all in the top ten. None of the years are old at all. Oh, and this was compiled last year. 2011 would be in there and no doubt this year will be too.

The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) consists of 114 stations developed, deployed, managed, and maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the continental United States for the express purpose of detecting the national signal of climate change. The vision of the USCRN program is to maintain a sustainable high-quality climate observation network that 50 years from now can with the highest degree of confidence answer the question: How has the climate of the nation changed over the past 50 years? These stations were designed with climate science in mind. Three independent measurements of temperature and precipitation are made at each station, insuring continuity of record and maintenance of well-calibrated and highly accurate observations. The stations are placed in pristine environments expected to be free of development for many decades. Stations are monitored and maintained to high standards, and are calibrated on an annual basis. In addition to temperature and precipitation, these stations also measure solar radiation, surface skin temperature, and surface winds, and are being expanded to include triplicate measurements of soil moisture and soil temperature at five depths, as well as atmospheric relative humidity. Experimental stations have been located in Alaska since 2002 and Hawaii since 2005, providing network experience in polar and tropical regions. Deployment of a complete 29 station USCRN network into Alaska began in 2009. This project is managed by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center and operated in partnership with NOAA’s Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

Darwin shivers through coldest August night on record
13/08/2012

Darwin has just shivered through its coldest August night on record, with data going back 71 years.

Minimum temperatures dropped to just 13.1˚C at 2:17am CST Monday, over seven degrees below the August average minimum of 20.4˚C.

Other areas to also record cold minimums overnight in the Darwin-Daly forecast district include Middle Point (5˚C – coldest in 22 years), Tindal (6.1˚C), Noonamah (8.6˚C) Batchelor (10.8˚C) and Dum Inn Mirrie (12.9˚C).

The unusually cold temperatures were caused by a blast of polar air from a cold-front in southern Australia last week which managed to push all the way up to the tropics.

Daytime temperatures were also below average yesterday, with Darwin reaching only 28.9˚C. The average maximum for August is 31.4˚C.

The coldest overnight minimum temperature ever recorded in Darwin however was in July 1942 when the mercury slipped to 10.4˚C.

Those shivering with the cold temperatures however have reason to be glad as temperatures are set to climb over coming days in Darwin.

The city is expected to drop to a minimum of 15˚C on Tuesday morning, before forecast minima of 17˚C on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum temperatures too will rise from the expected top of 29˚C today to hit 30˚C on both Tuesday and Wednesday as the atmosphere heats up once again with the cold air moving away.

Extreme fire danger for Darwin-Daly in the NT
12/08/2012

A Fire Weather Warning is current for extreme fire danger is current for the north-west region of the Darwin-Daly district in the Northern Territory.

The warning was last updated at 11am CST with a Fire Ban also in place until 5am CST on Monday.

The areas under the Fire Ban include the Darwin, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Pine Creek Emergency Response areas as well as the Litchfield and Coomalie Shires.

Through mid Sunday morning, winds were gusting 40-50km/h with humidity down to below 10 percent in places like Douglas River.

“A large area of high-pressure dominating the weather across eastern parts of Australia is generating a dry and very gusty southerly airstream across the region,” says Felim Hanniffy, Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

This means that severe to extreme fire dangers are likely to remain a feature of the weather here into the early parts of the coming week.

“An easterly airstream developing across northern parts towards the middle of the coming week is likely bring some respite, although dry conditions are likely to continue, which will see elevated fire dangers prevail,” concludes Hanniffy.

Snowy end to winter across Australian Alps
30/08

Snow has fallen across the alpine regions of the country with a snowy end to the last couple of days of winter.

The Alps have already had around 10cm overnight thanks to a strong cold-front tracking through the south-east.

There have also been reports of low-level snow around the Victorian ranges including in places like Trentham, Woodend, Newham and Buninyong, with snow levels down to around 600m in Victoria.

Over in New South Wales, isolated showers are forecast to fall as snow above 900m along the southern ranges.

Meanwhile in Tasmania, a Road Weather Alert and a Bushwalkers Alert are both in place for snow down to about 400m by late Thursday and those in the region can keep tabs of the latest updates here.

A further 10cm of snow is on the forecast for the Alps between Thursday and Friday, with winter slipping away on a distinctly snowy note.

Behind the front, temperatures have plummeted across the region with bitterly cold conditions recorded at 10:35am EST across places like Ben Nevis (1.9˚C), Mount William (0.4˚C), and Hunters Hill (1.4˚C) in Victoria.

Even Melbourne is only expecting a top of 13˚C today, eight degrees below the maximum recorded yesterday. Ballarat too is forecast to hit a high of just 7˚C today, potentially its coldest day so far this year.

Conditions are expected to ease by late Friday, with a beautiful first weekend of spring on the forecast thanks to a high-pressure system bringing clear skies and light winds.

Alice Springs trudges through longest dry spell in at least 40 years
30/08

Alice Springs has just recorded its driest spell in at least 40 years with not a drop of rain in the town’s rain gauge in over four months.

This has also been Alice Spring’s driest winter period in a decade, a rare occurrence that has only happened once before in 71 years of records.

Winter is typically the driest time of the year in Alice Springs, with the rainfall in the town averaging around June (13.8mm), July (15.0mm) and August (9.3mm).

However, even by those standards, it has been exceptionally dry, with the town failing to record a single drop over the winter months. The only other time such a dry winter has been recorded was in 2002.

What makes it even more significant is that through the entire month of May, Alice Springs received no rainfall as well. The average rainfall for May is 18.5mm.

The last time rainfall was recorded in the town’s gauge was April 24 when Alice Springs picked up 4mm and that was 127 days ago.

However, back in 1972, there was an even longer dry spell in Alice Springs when no rainfall was recorded between March 7 and 31 July, a stretch of 147 days.

The driest month of the year in Alice Springs is September with an average of just 8.5mm while the wettest is February, which averages 44.3mm.

Last February, Alice Springs managed to receive average rainfall, with 44.4mm, however conditions have dried out partly due to emerging El Niño conditions as well as the Indian Ocean Dipole entering a positive phase.

“Both these sea surface temperature patterns are normally associated with reduced rainfall across the area for winter and spring,” says Dick Whitaker, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

Winter refuses to give up frosty grip on south-east
30/08

Spring is knocking on the door, but in south-east Australia, winter is clinging on for a few more days with clear skies, light winds and widespread frosts on the forecast.

In Canberra, the bitterly cold temperatures are set to take hold over the next few days, with the nation’s capital expecting a minimum of -3˚C on Friday followed by -5˚C on Saturday and -4˚C come Sunday.

Maximum temperatures in Canberra are only expected to hit 11˚C tomorrow, while similarly cold maximum temperatures are expected across Hobart (12˚C) and Melbourne (14˚C).

These frosty mornings are a result of clear skies and light winds developing in the wake of a cold-outbreak that passed across the area during Thursday.

However, the approach of another cold-front early next week will see temperatures rise once more as northerly winds surge ahead of the system.

Maximum temperatures in Canberra for instance will soar from the forecast maximum of 11˚C tomorrow to a top of 16˚C come Sunday and 20˚C by Tuesday.

Best snow season in 8 years
31/08

A continuous stream of cold fronts has boosted the natural snow depth above 2 metres on the upper slopes of the Snowy Mountains for the first time in 8 years.

Snowy Hydro reports a depth of 204cm at Spencers Creek as of Thursday, which sits at an elevation of 1830m , the deepest snow cover since 2004 when the depth reached 228cm in mid August. The average peak snow depth each year is around 180 to 190cm.

While the higher resorts have welcomed a bumper season the snow depth at lower elevations has been near or slightly below average. At Deep Creek which sits at 1620m the current depth is 87cm, higher than last year but below 2010.

The deep snow cover is mainly the result of frequent cold fronts through August and below average temperatures throughout winter which has minimized snow melt between snowfalls. Mt Hotham has recorded an average temperature through winter of -2.2°C, the coldest winter on record with data back to 1990. Thredbo recorded its coldest winter in 12 years with an average temperature of -2.7°C.

Another 10 cm of snow has fallen across most resorts since yesterday and snow will continue across the Alps today before clearing tonight. The next chance of snow is later next week when yet another series of cold fronts sweep over southeastern Australia.

Weather to Watch
31/08

Very cold polar air is passing over south-eastern Australia behind a cold-front.

“The cold air is causing showers through Tasmania, Victoria and south-east New South Wales today,” says Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

It’s another good weekend on the slopes with the Alps getting a decent dumping today thanks to the cold air.

“Snow levels are lowering in New South Wales today to around 700m. Cooma dropped below 0˚C at noon with steady snow, Canberra might see snow over the next couple of hours and brief snow will even reach the New South Wales central ranges this afternoon,” he continues.

“A trough will trigger the odd storm over Eastern Queensland late on Friday but all showers and storms will ease and mostly clear from eastern Australia by Saturday. As cloud clears and winds ease widespread severe frost will affect the eastern inland this weekend.

It might be the last day of winter but that doesn’t mean the conclusion of cold-fronts, with another front set to make its way across the south early in the week.

“Another cold-front will hit Southwest Western Australia Friday and Saturday then a stronger front should follow early next week over southern Australia. This front should cause severe weather from southern Western Australia to New South Wales,” he concludes.

Canberra endures coldest September night in over 70 years
Updated: 1/09

Frosty Canberra endures its coldest September night on record.

Following a bitterly cold night, Canberrans awoke to deep freeze with overnight minimum temperature plunging to an all time September low of -6.8˚C, the coldest at this particular location since records began back in 1939.

Doonas were pulled tightly around slumbering residence as this polar chill sent the mercury tumbling during the early hours of Saturday morning, surpass the previous record by 0.4˚C that was set back in 1982.

After a frosty start the nation’s state capital can look forward to a fine and sunny Saturday with plenty in the way of spring sunshine to chase away the overnight chills, with a top temperature of 14C expected.

A bitterly cold southerly airstream swept up across the region following a trough on Friday, clearing skies and light winds overnight due to a ridge of high pressure saw temperature plummet well below zero.

A large area of high pressure will dominate the weather across the region over coming days as it builds across the region from the west with more icy mornings expected, Canberra is forecasted to see overnight mins of -4˚C on Sunday and -3C on Monday as a result.

Should this forecast eventuate, it would mean three consecutive days with minimum temperatures of -3˚C or less, and the coldest September spell here since 1971,its was during this particular cold snap the region experienced four consecutive days of sub -3˚C minimums.

Cold nights should become less of feature for Tuesday and Wednesday as a much warmer northerly airstream develops across the region bringing a general rise in temperatures.

However an approaching frontal system later Wednesday will bring a burst of showers and very strong winds across the area with the potential for damaging winds in places, and weather warnings likely to ensue as a result.

Sydney shiver: September records tumble
1/09

Sydney shivered through its coldest September night in nearly two decades, while parts of the western suburbs endure the coldest September night on record.

Dazzling sunshine bathed the New South Wales capital in azure skies on Saturday morning as a frigid night relinquished its grip icy to spring’s warming embrace.

Slumbering Sydney-siders awoke to a distinctly crispy morning as the mercury plunged well below zero through parts of the western suburbs, indeed for some of these areas it was the coldest on records with records dating back for over 80 years.

Some of the most significant overnight minimum temperatures recorded to 9am EST on Saturday were:Camden (-1.8°C) its coldest September night for over 41 years, Richmond (-1.4°C) the coldest September night for over 83 years and Badgerys creek (-0.2°C) the coldest September spell here for 18 years.

Meanwhile even the normally milder Sydney Central Business District also shuddered through a noticeable chilly morning with Sydney observational hill recording an overnight minimum of 5.5°C, the coldest September night here for 17 years.

A bitterly cold southerly airstream swept up across the region following a trough on Friday, clearing skies and light winds overnight due to an area of high pressure further west saw temperature plunge sub-zero in places.

This high pressure system will remain the dominant feature of the weather for the rest of the weekend and into the start of the coming week as it builds across the region resulting in bright sunny days but nights are likely to be chilly particularly further west.

However a passing trough in the Tasman Sea later Saturday afternoon and evening may bring a brief interruption with more in the way of cloud and a possible shower for coastal regions but these should ease again tonight and through the early part of Sunday.

Current indications suggest that these cold nights will become less of feature through Tuesday and Wednesday as a much warmer northerly airstream develops across the region bringing a general rise in temperatures.

Arctic sea ice rejuvenating
Aug 31, 2012

The National Snow and Ice Data Centre of the U.S. has confirmed that data presented by its Japanese collages that the Arctic sea ice has shrunken to its lowest point, down to 4.1 million square kilometers in August since satellite records began in 1979. This is 70,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set on the 18th of September 2007. By 2040, the Earth’s ice cap might disappear, foreign experts forecast. But Russian scientists disagree with these pessimistic forecasts.

Experts from various countries are closely monitoring the state of the Arctic sea ice because this region is the “kitchen weather” of the planet. Since 1979, they have used satellite images but applied different methods to assess the area covered by ice. Scientists from the Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute of the Russian meteorological service in St. Petersburg are leaning on rich experience gained by field studies, which foreign experts do not have.

The findings show that the “Arctic sea ice is “rejuvenating” and this is a seasonal change but not the disappearance of ice, says Dr. Genrikh Alekseev.

“The reason here is that in the summer, ice melts, while in the winter, ice is formed. Practically, the territory covered by the winter ice shrinks very slowly. In the winter, the ice layer is restored. But this concerns especially the newly formed ice which is growing, and by next year, its thickness reaches up to one-meter or more,” Genrikh Alekseev said.

In winter, the newly formed ice actively grows up to a 1.2 meter thick layer, while the costal ice grows up to 2.0 meters. Consequently, the Arctic sea ice layer does not change significantly. Moreover, according to Genrikh Alekseev, in the summer, ice melts in various seas unequally. This year, the seas through which the Northern Shipping Route passes are covered with an unusually thicker ice layer. The Barents Sea is covered by a thin ice layer, but the amount of ice in the Kara, Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukotskiy seas exceeds the level of 2007. The conditions in the Arctic in the warm summer can be considered abnormal, but the Northern Shipping Route has not been completely freed from ice yet. This means icebreakers will be needed in the future, says the scientist.

“According to forecasts made by using calculations on global models, by the end of the century ice might disappear almost completely in the summer, but ice will be formed up to the previous borders in the winter,” Genrikh Alekseev added.

The extreme melting of ice in the summer 2012 is most likely the last gesture that the warming is ending. In fact, ice is a product of climate, and when comparing the graphs of the air temperature and melting ice, one can see that they coincide, Genrikh Alekseev said.

The long-term monitoring by the experts at the institute confirms the presence of a 60-year climate fluctuating cycle when reorganization of atmospheric processes and circulation of oceans related to them are taking place. At present, according to their calculations, another period of warming is ending, while the previous warming peak was registered between 1930 and 1940. The nature of these cycles is known vaguely, and scientists are still unaware of the laws under which oceans live.

A Russians view of the Artic.

NIC charts are produced through the analyses of available in situ, remote sensing, and model data sources. They are generated primarily for mission planning and safety of navigation. NIC charts generally show more ice than do passive microwave derived sea ice concentrations, particularly in the summer when passive microwave algorithms tend to underestimate ice concentration. The record of sea ice concentration from the NIC series is believed to be more accurate than that from passive microwave sensors, especially from the mid-1990s on (see references at the end of this documentation), but it lacks the consistency of some passive microwave time series.

If global warming doesn't exist, why would the ice be "rejuvenating"?

yous guys sure do love weather.

Right, because this thread is totally not political.

Right, because this thread is totally not political.